流域水资源脆弱性评价可以量化表现出水资源的脆弱性程度，客观地反映研究区的水安全状况。根据水资源脆弱性的表现形式及成因，设置了水量、水质、洪涝灾害、旱灾4个一级指标，自然因素、人为因素、承载因素3个二级指标，分级构建了水资源脆弱性评价指标体系，在线性加权法的基础上采用熵权法构建了水资源脆弱性评价模型。以淮河流域为例进行实证分析，从时间、空间2个维度上对2003—2012年淮河流域整体及流域内的4个省份进行水资源脆弱性评价。结果表明时间上，10 a间淮河流域整体水资源脆弱度数值逐年减小，水资源脆弱性呈现好转趋势，流域内河南、安徽、江苏、山东4省的水资源脆弱性在10 a间均有所缓解;空间上，淮河流域水资源自西向东越来越脆弱。研究结果表明目前淮河流域水资源脆弱性状况呈现好转趋势，但仍然存在一些问题，有待进一步管理和调控。
Abstract
Assessment of basin water resources vulnerability reflects the water security conditions of the research area in an objective way by quantifying the degree of water resources vulnerability. According to the manifestation and causes of water resources' vulnerability, we built an evaluation indices system which consists of four primary indicators including water yield, water quality, flood disaster and drought and three secondary indicators of natural factor, human factor and carrying factor. On this basis, we constructed an assessment model for water resource vulnerability by using the entropy weight method in association with the linear weighting method. In this research we took Huaihe River basin as an example and assessed the water resources vulnerability of four provinces in 2003-2012 from two dimensions of time and space. The results showed that in terms of the time dimension, the value of water resources vulnerability in Huaihe River basin decreased in the decade, indicating that the vulnerability of water resources in the four provinces was improving; while in terms of the space dimension, water resources in Huaihe River basin was becoming more and more fragile from the west to the east. Research shows that the water resources vulnerability in Huaihe River basin presents a trend of improvement, but there are still some problems that need further management and regulation.
关键词
流域水资源 /
脆弱性评价 /
线性加权法 /
熵权法 /
淮河流域
Key words
basin water resources /
vulnerability assessment /
linear weighting method /
entropy weight method /
Huaihe River basin
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基金
国家自然基金青年项目(71403122);江苏省自然基金青年项目(BK20140980);教育部人文社科基金青年项目(14YJC630018)
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