以江苏省为研究区域,利用1984—2011年的江苏省暴雨洪涝灾害的灾情数据和社会经济数据,从灾害发生的暴露范围、人口暴露度和农作物暴露度3个方面分析灾害的暴露度特征,从人口脆弱性、农作物脆弱性和经济脆弱性3个方面分析灾害的脆弱性特征。研究表明1984—2011年,江苏省暴雨洪涝灾害多年平均暴露面积、人口暴露度、农作物暴露度分别为2.8万km2、227.5万人、4 484.3 km2;暴露面积及人口暴露度呈现增加趋势,农作物暴露度先升高后降低;高暴露区域主要分布在长江、淮河流域水系沿岸及沿海区域县(市、区);江苏省暴雨洪涝灾害多年平均人口脆弱性、农作物脆弱性、经济脆弱性分别为0.05%,35.3%,0.63%,人口脆弱性平均水平较低,年代际间呈现下降趋势;农作物脆弱性呈增加趋势;经济脆弱性先增加后降低。
Abstract
According to historical flood disaster data and social economic data in Jiangsu Province from 1984 to 2011, we analyzed the characteristics of disaster exposure from aspects of disaster area, population exposed to disaster, and crop exposed to disaster. Also we analyzed the disaster vulnerability from aspects of population vulnerability, crop vulnerability and economic vulnerability. Results show that from 1984 to 2011, the annual average area exposed to disaster was 28 000 km2, population exposed to disaster 2.275 million people, and crop exposed to disaster 4484.3 km2 in Jiangsu Province. The disaster area and population exposure showed a trend of increasing, and crop exposure showed a trend of decreasing after increasing. The areas with the highest exposure were mainly distributed along the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Basin and in the coastal counties (cities, regions). The annual average population vulnerability, crop vulnerability and economic vulnerability was 0.05%, 35.3%, and 0.63%, respectively. Population vulnerability was low and showed a decreasing trend, whereas crop vulnerability showed an increasing trend, and economic vulnerability decreased after increasing first.
关键词
暴雨洪涝灾害 /
脆弱性 /
暴露度 /
时空变化 /
江苏省
Key words
flood disaster /
vulnerability /
exposure /
spatial-temporal change /
Jiangsu Province
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基金
全球变化研究国家重大科学计划项目(2012CB955903)
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