依据1957—2012年鄱阳湖流域控制水文站的实测资料,运用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析方法,对该时段内枯水期入湖径流的趋势及周期变化特征进行分析,分析其变化规律对鄱阳湖水资源合理利用、水生态保护具有重要意义。结果表明:1957—2012年鄱阳湖流域各站点枯水期径流大致呈增加的趋势,平均增加幅度约为0.199/a,且在0.1的显著水平下,万家埠站、梅港站、虎山站枯水期径流增加趋势显著;鄱阳湖流域各站点的枯水期径流变化具有较显著的周期特征,其中21 a为鄱阳湖流域枯水期径流变化主周期,各站点径流变化还存在5,12,28 a的变化小周期。鄱阳湖流域枯水期径流的周期规律的研究,为流域水利工程建设、生态环境保护及水资源合理利用提供了科学依据。

According to runoff data at main hydrological stations in Poyang Lake watershed from 1957 to 2012, we analyze the trend and periodic variation of incoming runoff in dry season by using Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The variation law is important for us to utilize water resources and protect water ecological environment. Test results show that from 1957 to 2012, runoff of each station shows an increasing trend in dry season, with mean increased margin of 0.199 per year, especially for runoffs in Wanjiabu station, Meigang station and Hushan station under significance level of 0.1; furthermore, runoff at each station in Poyang Lake watershed has obvious periodic features, with main period of 21a, as well as other notable periods such as 5a, 12a, and 28a. This research offers reference for hydraulic construction, ecological environment protection, and rational utilization of water resources in the watershed.