针对集对分析(set pair analysis,SPA)在径流预测中径流集合量化标准仅根据主观经验确定的问题,提出了率定量化标准系数的SPA年径流预测模型,即首先对量化标准系数进行率定,再用SPA模型对径流进行预测。将该模型应用于长江宜昌站,并与经验标准预测结果进行对比。结果表明,率定量化标准后的预测结果能更好、更准确地反映原序列的变化,精度更高。
Abstract
In order to solve the problem that the quantitative standard coefficient is only determined by subjective experience of investigators in annual runoff prediction based on set pair analysis(SPA), we present a prediction model based on SPA in association with calibration of quantitative standard coefficient Firstly, we calibrate quantitative standard coefficient. Then, we predict the runoff by using SPA. Yichang station in Yangtze River is taken as an example, and predicted data by this model are compared with those by empirical quantitative standard model. The results show that predicted data by the model presented is more accurate to reflect original sequence than those by other models.
关键词
率定量化标准系数 /
集对分析 /
年径流 /
预测模型 /
经验标准预测
Key words
variations of water and sediment /
calibration of quantitative standard coefficient /
set pair analysis(SPA) /
annual runoff /
prediction model /
predicted data from empirical standard model
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基金
国家973项目(2013CB036401);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51209152)
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