以鄱阳湖水系的抚河流域为研究对象,构建了抚河流域的SWAT模型,并对李家渡水文站的径流数据进行了模拟。模拟结果表明该模型适用于抚河流域的径流模拟。为了进一步验证模型在极端气候条件下的稳定性,分别选取连续丰水年(1975—1977年)和枯水年(1963—1965年)、连续高温年(1963—1965年)和低温年(1969—1971年)对模型进行验证。通过对气候变化条件下流域径流的模拟,率定期的决定系数R2与效率系数ENS均在0.85以上,验证期(1991—1998年)的R2与ENS均在0.80以上,说明构建的模型在极端气候年份具有一定的稳定性。
Abstract
Calibration is a focus of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model research in simulating water basin runoff, while validation of the model’s stability in different climatic conditions is rarely seen. Taking Fuhe river watershed in Poyang Lake water system as an example, we built a SWAT model to simulate the runoff at Lijiadu hydrological station and further validated the model’s stability in extreme climate conditions. For the validation we took the data measured in continuous wet years (1975-1977) and dry years (1963-1965), continuous high temperature years (1963-1965) and low temperature years (1969-1971). Results show that the determination coefficient R2 and efficiency coefficient ENS are both larger than 0.85 in calibration period, and larger than 0.80 in validation period (1991-1998). The model was verified to be suitable for Fuhe river watershed and stable under extreme weather conditions.
关键词
SWAT模型 /
径流量 /
稳定性验证 /
气候变化 /
抚河流域
Key words
SWAT model /
stream flow /
stability validation /
climate change /
Fuhe river watershed
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41331174,41101415);国家科技重大专项“水体污染控制与治理”(2013ZX07105-005);湖北省自然科学基金(2015CFB331);江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心专项项目(JXS-EW-08);测绘地理信息公益性行业科研专项项目(201512026)
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