关键词: 降雨信息, 预报失误, 优化调度, 贝叶斯定理

Abstract:

In order to study the influence of rainfall forecast error on flood control operation, the short-term rainfall forecast accuracy and distribution for the next 24 hours in Ankang reservoir were analyzed. The probability of flood control operation risk event owing to short-term rainfall forecast error was calculated based on Bayes theorem. Results show that, as for flood operation based on rainfall forecast information of different levels under the current rainfall forecast level, the forecast error at level I (forecasting“no rain”) has little effect on flood operation, hence can be used to guide optimal operation for reservioir; the error at level II (forecasting “light rain”) has great impact on small flood operation and the error at level III (forecasting“no less than moderate rain”) has great impact on large flood control operation, thus can be taken as referenceindex in the flood optimal operation.

Key words: rainfall information, forecast error, optimal operation, Bayes theorem