PDF(4435 KB)
不同路径型台风对鹤地水库集雨区降水的影响
符靖茹, 徐金勤, 蔡孙平, 谭孟祥, 于洲, 林卉娇
raybet体育在线 院报 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9) : 106-113.
PDF(4435 KB)
PDF(4435 KB)
不同路径型台风对鹤地水库集雨区降水的影响
Impact of Typhoons with Different Track Types on Precipitation in Catchment Area of Hedi Reservoir
降水量的变化是水库蓄水和调度的重要参考因素。基于台风路径资料、集雨区观测点的逐日降水观测资料以及Micaps数据,利用统计学方法研究影响鹤地水库集雨区的台风降水变化特征及台风暴雨环流形势场配置。结果表明:近32 a来影响集雨区的台风增加趋势为0.33个/(10 a),存在7 a的周期振荡,7—9月份是台风影响高峰期;不同路径型台风的降水特征存在较大差异,西路型台风降水过程雨量、雨强差异较大,集雨区南部降水比北部地区强,且局地性暴雨居多;中路型台风降水过程雨量大、强降水范围大、维持时间相对较长,集雨区全区以暴雨到大暴雨为主;东路型降水各站点雨量差异很大;此外,造成鹤地水库上游集雨区台风暴雨的环流主要由副热带高压、西南季风、冷空气共同影响引起,初步建立西路型、中路型台风暴雨的环流形势场经验预报方法。
[Objective] Variations in precipitation are important references for reservoir storage and scheduling. This study aims to reveal the precipitation patterns in the catchment area of the Hedi Reservoir under typhoons with different track types (west-track, middle-track, east-track), establish related forecasting experience, and improve typhoon precipitation forecast services. [Methods] Using typhoon track data, daily precipitation observations from monitoring stations in the catchment area, and MICAPS data, statistical methods including linear trend analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the variation characteristics of typhoon precipitation and the circulation pattern configurations of typhoon-induced rainstorms affecting the catchment area of Hedi Reservoir. [Results] The results showed that: (1) over the past 32 years, the number of typhoons affecting the catchment area showed an increasing trend of 0.33 events per decade, with a 7-year periodic oscillation. The peak typhoon season occurred from July to September, accounting for 77.2% of annual typhoon impact.(2) Typhoon tracks affecting the catchment area were classified into three types: west-track, middle-track, and east-track. Middle-track type was the most frequent, accounting for 46.8% of the total, followed by west-track type at 44.3%, while east-track type was the least frequent, accounting for 8.9%.(3) There were significant differences in precipitation characteristics among typhoons with different track types. West-track typhoons showed large variations in precipitation amount and intensity, with stronger precipitation in the southern catchment area and frequent localized rainstorms. Middle-track typhoons were characterized by large rainfall amounts, extensive areas of intense precipitation, and relatively prolonged duration, with rainstorms to heavy rainstorms dominating the entire catchment area. For east-track typhoons, rainfall amounts varied greatly across stations, and there was currently no reliable forecasting experience.(4) The typhoon-induced rainstorms in the upstream catchment area of Hedi Reservoir were mainly caused by the combined influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, the southwest monsoon, and cold air. Based on an analysis of historical typhoon circulation patterns, an empirical forecasting method for the circulation patterns of west-track and middle-track typhoon-induced rainstorms was preliminarily developed. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicate that the precipitation in the catchment area of the Hedi Reservoir is closely related to typhoon tracks. Forecasting of typhoon tracks and empirical prediction of their circulation patterns can serve as a reference for accurately forecasting reservoir precipitation. These findings provide important guidance for the rational operation of the Hedi Reservoir, coordinated water storage scheduling, meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation, and the full realization of maximum comprehensive benefits.
集雨区 / 降水变化特征 / 环流形势场 / 台风 / 降水观测资料 / Micaps数据 / 鹤地水库 / 水库蓄水和调度
catchment area / precipitation change characteristics / circulation flow pattern / typhoon / precipitation observation data / Micaps data / Hedi Reservoir / reservoir storage and forecast
| [1] |
IPCC. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report[R]. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023.
|
| [2] |
赵宇铭, 邱新法, 朱晓晨, 等. 1971—2010年中国干湿区降雨资源变化特征分析[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2019, 36(5): 34-41.
降雨在农业生产领域、科学技术领域以及预报洪涝灾害、分析水资源等方面意义重大。利用全国1971—2010年743个气象站点的逐日降雨数据,基于干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区的干湿区划分,对年降雨量和年降雨日数按等级进行划分,运用线性倾向率、累积距平、M-K检验和滑动t检验等方法系统分析了4个干湿区内不同等级年降雨量和年降雨日数变化特征以及各区域年降雨量时间演变特征。结果表明:①过去40 a各干湿区年降雨日数分布存在差异,其中湿润区年降雨日数呈中部高、周边偏低分布趋势;②干旱区北部小雨的降雨贡献率和频率较高,半干旱区大到暴雨的降雨贡献率和频率低下;③在年代际变化中,1991—2000年湿润区年降雨量增加幅度最大,2001—2010年半湿润区年降雨量变化不明显;④各干湿分区的年降雨量近40 a突变趋势不一致,湿润区在2002年发生从多到少突变,而半干旱区未发生突变。研究成果对于预测旱涝灾害、分析水资源及治理生态环境等方面具有参考价值。
(
According to daily rainfall data at 743 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010, we classified annual rainfall amount and rainfall days by grade and further discussed the variation characteristics of rainfall amount and rainfall days and the temporal evolution of annual rainfall in four regions (arid region, semi-arid region, semi-humid region and humid region) via linear trend analysis, accumulative anomaly, M-K test and moving-<i>t</i> test. Results demonstrated that (1) in the past four decades, the annual rainfall days differed among the four regions, among which the humid area experienced more days of rainfall in the middle but less in the surroundings. (2) In the north part of arid region, light rainfall contributed more with high frequency, whereas in semi-arid regions, heavy rain and rainstorm contributed less with lower frequency. (3) In terms of interdecadal change, the annual rainfall amount during 1991-2000 increased most remarkably in humid region, yet not obviously in 2001-2010 in semi-humid region. (4) The trend of abrupt change of rainfall amount was inconsistent between wet and dry regions: in humid region the rainfall amount declined abruptly in 2002, while in semi-arid region no abrupt change happened.
|
| [3] |
符靖茹, 沈碧辉, 于洲, 等. 雷州半岛热带气旋降水的时空分布及变化特征[J]. 热带农业科学, 2020, 40(6): 71-76.
(
|
| [4] |
卢阳, 黄科翰, 胡月, 等. 贵州省正安县“2020·6·12”山洪灾害成因分析与启示[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2023, 40(4): 66-72.
2020年6月12日凌晨,贵州省正安县白花河流域突降大暴雨至特大暴雨,致碧峰集镇所在地发生特大山洪灾害。为探寻此次山洪灾害成因,在资料收集和现场勘测基础上,分析了灾情、雨情和水情,还原了山洪动态淹没过程,并利用基于二维浅水方程开发的洪水演进模型软件对洪水演进过程进行了模拟和验证,得出以下主要结论:①特殊的地形地貌和独特的地理位置为灾害发生提供了基础条件;②短历时超强降雨叠加较高的前期累积降雨量是诱发灾害关键因素;③河道现状防洪能力不足与洪峰流量过大的矛盾使得灾害发生成为必然;④非常住人口与流动人口较多,妇女和儿童自救能力差,部分群众避险意识不强,极大增加了灾害损失。在此基础上,提出了科学规划顶层设计、完善山洪灾害群测群防体系、细化防洪减灾动态管理等启示和建议。研究成果对防洪减灾、洪水风险分析和灾情评估等山洪灾害防治工作具有一定的借鉴和指导意义。
(
To explore the causes of the “2020·6·12” flash flood disaster in Zheng'an County, Guizhou Province, data was collected and site surveys were conducted. The disaster, flood and rain conditions were analyzed. The dynamic process of flood inundation was simulated and verified using two-dimensional flow model software based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. The causes of the flash flood disaster were obtained: 1) The special topography provided basic conditions for the disaster; 2) Short-duration heavy rainfall superimposed on high previous cumulative rainfall was the key factor in inducing disaster; 3) The contradiction between the inadequate flood control capacity of the river course and excessive peak discharge made disasters inevitable; 4) Many non-residents and floating population, women and children with poor self-rescue ability, and people with low risk-avoidance awareness greatly increased disaster risks. On this basis, some measures to prevent and control flash flood disasters were proposed such as scientific top-level design, improvement of mass monitoring system and prevention of flash flood disaster, and detailed dynamic management of flood control and disaster reduction.
|
| [5] |
陈晓旸, 王敏, 梁健, 等. 广东雨窝地形下中小水库极端降水及其发生时间的特征分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2024, 42(6):10-14,41.
(
|
| [6] |
姚仕明, 范达福, 栾华龙, 等. 鄱阳湖近年极端洪枯情势分析及应对策略[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2024, 41(12):171-179.
受自然因素变化和人类活动的双重影响,近年来鄱阳湖出现了极端的洪枯水文情势。2020年汛期鄱阳湖最高水位突破历史极值,2022年鄱阳湖出现历史罕见的“汛期反枯”现象,多站出现历史最低水位。极端的洪枯水文情势给湖区乃至长江下游地区防汛抗旱工作带来了严重影响。为应对新水沙及气候条件下鄱阳湖流域洪旱灾害,根据鄱阳湖流域水文、大气环流资料和三峡工程运行信息,对上述2次极端洪枯事件进行总结分析。 结果表明: 厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象下副热带高压影响降雨、湖区出入流是鄱阳湖出现极端洪枯水文情势的主要原因,长江上游干支流水库调节也对极端洪枯水文情势产生了一定影响。研究成果有助于提升鄱阳湖流域水旱灾害应对能力。
(
|
| [7] |
李文晖, 张阳, 曹辉, 等. 嘉陵江径流与气象旱涝特征的响应关系[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2025, 42(8):53-60.
为弄清气象旱涝特征对嘉陵江流量过程的影响规律,基于长序列逐日降水量和流量数据,采用SWAP指数方法与游程理论,识别了嘉陵江流域日尺度气象干旱与洪涝事件,通过对比采用传统多元回归和新兴机器学习模型方法,揭示了径流变化对旱涝特征的响应关系。结果显示:1989—2022年,嘉陵江流域共发生了68次气象干旱事件,导致流量平均减少了48.25%,干旱事件发生时间是影响径流变化的主控因子,仅考虑该因子时的支持向量回归模型可对干旱引起的流量变化幅度做出较为准确评估。同时期,嘉陵江流域共发生了40次气象洪涝事件,流量平均增长了130.46%,推荐采用多元回归模型来评估洪涝特征与流量变幅、洪峰时间的响应关系,而洪涝事件对洪峰流量的影响程度,则推荐使用随机森林模型。
(
|
| [8] |
黄海洪, 林开平, 高安宁, 等. 广西天气预报技术和方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2012.
(
|
| [9] |
李华实, 王东海, 陆虹, 等. 广西汛期大范围持续性强降水特征与天气学分型研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 2023, 39(2): 242-255.
(
|
| [10] |
柴霁森, 逄勇, 王啸天, 等. 华南地区典型水库溃坝洪水演进及影响分析[J]. 水利规划与设计, 2023(5):114-120.
(
|
| [11] |
陈红宏, 陈苑, 肖仕鼎, 等. 九洲江流域上游“06·7”暴雨洪水分析[J]. 广东水利水电, 2006(6):45-46,51.
(
|
| [12] |
蔡启佳, 耿征颜, 孙瑞欣, 等. 鹤地水库有色溶解性有机物来源与组成特征[J]. 环境科学学报, 2024(11):1-10.
(
|
| [13] |
陈亮雄, 杨静学, 李兴汉, 等. 基于无人机与3S技术的鹤地水库水政监管系统开发与应用[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2020, 37(12): 176-182.
借助现代信息技术手段提高水库水政监管的效率与水平,进而为水库水政执法提供科学依据,是当前新形势下的必然选择。以鹤地水库为例,综合采用无人机航测、地图缓存、遥感水质参数反演以及“互联网+”技术研发了一套完整的水库水政监管系统,实现“空天地”一体化的水库水资源监控目标,以更好地辅助库区管理和水政执法,维护库区生态平衡,保障水库生产生活用水安全。系统的实际应用表明,该监管平台在实现海量、多源、异构数据整合的基础上,能对库区范围内的各类水事行为、水质安全状况、水库运行状态起到高效、动态、全面的把握与监管,使得库区管理和水政执法更加科学、准确、及时、高效。研究成果可为全面提升水库水政监管的能力和水平提供参考。
(
It is a very inevitable choice to improve the efficiency and level of reservoir water administration supervision with the help of modern information technology under the current situation. A complete reservoir water administration and supervision system for Hedi reservoir is developed by integrating unmanned aerial vehicle survey, map cache, remote sensing inversion of water quality and “Internet+” technology. The supervision platform achieved the goal of air-space-ground integration for reservoir water resource, giving support for reservoir management and water law enforcement, maintaining ecological balance in reservoir area, and ensuring the water safety of production and living. Practical application of the system demonstrates that the supervision platform which is based on the integration of massive, multi-source and heterogeneous data, can effectively, dynamically and comprehensively grasp and monitor different water-related behaviors, water quality safety conditions and reservoir operation status within the reservoir area. This platform can also promote the reservoir management and water law enforcement to be more scientific, accurate, timely and efficient.
|
| [14] |
李剑兵. 鹤地水库区域降雨特点及集雨供水能力分析[J]. 广东气象, 1995, 17(4): 13-15.
(
|
| [15] |
陈联寿, 丁一汇. 西太平洋台风概论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1979.
(
|
| [16] |
叶舟, 耿诚, 徐贝, 等. 基于长系列水文监测数据的台风对舟山岛降雨量的影响[J]. raybet体育在线
院报, 2023, 40(6): 35-42.
以舟山长春岭雨量站作为参考点,利用长系列监测数据进行分析计算,对1980—2019年间发生在西北太平洋的台风对长春岭站降雨量的影响进行研究。分析结果显示长春岭站平均每年台风雨占台汛期降雨的72.55%,舟山登陆、浙江登陆、其他登陆及非登录台风平均每年给长春岭站带来降雨量29.45、126.23、364.68 mm,这3类台风的单个台风给长春岭站带来降雨量分别为300.65、157.78、71.28 mm。研究揭示了长春岭站总降雨量很大程度上取决于带来影响>50 mm降雨量的台风,特别是浙江省内登录的台风。除登陆点外,浙江登陆台风影响长春岭站降雨量最大因子是路径走向,其次是强度和移动速度。研究结果对进一步认识舟山岛水资源的形成具有一定的参考意义。
(
The study aimed to investigate the influence of typhoons occurring in the northwest Pacific on rainfall at the Changchunling Rainfall Station in Zhoushan. By analyzing a long-term monitoring dataset spanning from 1980 to 2019, we explored the impact of typhoons on rainfall patterns. The findings revealed that, on average, typhoon rainfall at the Changchunling Station accounted for 72.55% of the total precipitation during the typhoon season. Specifically, typhoons making landfall in Zhoushan, and those in Zhejiang, as well as typhoons making landfall in other areas and non-landfall typhoons, contributed an annual average rainfall of 29.45 mm, 126.23 mm, and 364.68 mm to the Changchunling station, respectively. Furthermore, individual typhoons of the three types brought rainfall of 300.65 mm, 157.78 mm, and 71.28 mm to the Station. The study highlights that the overall precipitation at the Station is significantly influenced by typhoons generating rainfall exceeding 50 mm. Among these, the typhoons making landfall in Zhejiang, particularly those producing rainfall amounts above 50 mm, exert the greatest impact. In addition to the landfall location, the path direction of the typhoon emerges as the primary factor influencing rainfall patterns at the Changchunling Station, followed by its intensity and moving speed. These findings provide valuable insights into comprehending the formation of water resources on Zhoushan Island, offering significant implications for further research in this area.
|
| [17] |
中国气象局热带气旋资料中心. CMA最佳路径数据集[EB/OL].(2023-08-01)[2024-03-27].
(Tropical Cyclone Data Center of China Meteorological Administration. CMA Best Track Dataset[EB/OL].(2023-08-01)[2024-03-27]. (in Chinese))
|
| [18] |
|
| [19] |
|
| [20] |
广东省气象局. 广东省台风业务和服务规定[Z]. 广州: 广东气象局, 2012.
(Guangdong Meteorological Bureau. Regulations on Typhoon Business and Service of Guangdong Province[Z]. Guangzhou: Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, 2012. (in Chinese))
|
| [21] |
广东省气象局《广东省天气预报技术手册》编写组. 广东省天气预报技术手册[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006: 35-100.
(Editorial Team of the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau for the Guangdong Weather Forecasting Technical Manual. Technical Guidance on Weather Forecating in Guangdong Province[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006: 35-100. (in Chinese))
|
| [22] |
魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2013.
(
|
| [23] |
端义宏, 陈联寿, 王元, 等. 登陆台风异常变化机理[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2022: 677-808.
(
|
| [24] |
朱乾根. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 3版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2000.
(
|
| [25] |
程正泉, 陈联寿, 刘燕, 等. 1960—2003年我国热带气旋降水的时空分布特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2007(4):427-434.
(
|
| [26] |
杨慧, 任福民, 杨明仁. 不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 747-756.
基于1960—2017年2 000多个气象台站逐日降水数据和中国气象局热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料集，采用客观天气图分析法（OSAT）识别得到TC降水。研究表明，中国TC降水总体呈显著下降趋势，较12年前的研究结果下降趋势变缓；TC盛期（7～9月）降水占到TC总降水的78.5%，TC盛期降水和TC非盛期降水均呈显著下降趋势。TC降水气候趋势在空间分布上以减少为主要特征，并表现出明显的地域差异，自南向北呈“减少—增多—减少”的分布型，减少趋势中心位于广东和海南。按TC影响期最大强度分级（弱TC、中等强度TC和强TC）研究不同强度TC降水的变化，结果显示，强TC降水表现出显著减少趋势，主要决定着TC总降水的影响范围和趋势等主要特征。进一步分析发现，影响TC频数在1960—2017年呈显著减少趋势，并在1995年发生突变；对1995年前后2个时期的对比研究显示，与前一时期（1960—1994年）相比，后一时期（1995—2017年）影响TC活动频次在20°N以南的海域呈现出显著的减少趋势，减少大值中心位于南海北部，而且这一特征也主要由影响TC中的强TC所决定；强TC的这一变化趋势导致了华南地区尤其是广东和海南TC降水日数的减少，进而使得TC降水减少。
(
Based on the daily precipitation data of more than 2 000 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017 and the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration, the TC precipitation was identified by the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT). The research shows that the TC precipitation in China has a significant downward trend, which is slower than that of the research results 12 years ago. The TC precipitation in the peaking season (July to Sepember) accounted for 78.5% of the total TC precipitation. Both TC precipitation in peaking season and other months showed a significant downward trend. The TC precipitation climate trend is mainly characterized by reduction in spatial distribution, and shows obvious regional differences. From south to north, there is a distribution of “decreasing-increasing-decreasing”, and the decreasing trend centers are located in Guangdong and Hainan. According to the maximum intensity in the TC influence period, we classified TCs into three levels (weak TCs, medium intensity TCs and strong TCs) and studied the variations of TC precipitation in different intensities. The results show that the strong TC precipitation shows a significant decrease trend, which mainly determines the influence range and trend of TC total precipitation. Further analysis found that the frequency of affecting TC showed a significant reduction trend during the time period of 1960-2017 and an abrupt shift occurred in 1995. A comparative study of the two periods before and after 1995 showed that compared with the previous period (1960-1994), the frequency of TCs in the latter period (1995-2017) showed a significant decreasing trend in the south of 20°N. The maximum decreasing center was located in the northern part of the South China Sea, and this feature was mainly affected by the strong TC. It was decided that this trend of strong TC led to a decrease trend in the number of precipitation days in South China, especially in Guangdong and Hainan, which led to a decrease trend in TC precipitation. |
| [27] |
董美莹, 陈联寿, 郑沛群, 等. 登陆热带气旋暴雨突然增幅和特大暴雨之研究进展[J]. 热带气象学报, 2009, 25(4):495-502.
(
|
| [28] |
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
