关键词: 水资源承载力, 预测分析, 综合评价, GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型, 不确定性分析, 可持续发展, 宜昌市

Abstract: Research on the carrying capacity of water resources involves comprehensive evaluation and prediction and analysis. With Yichang City as a case study, we assessed the comprehensive carrying capacity of a composite system including water resources subsystem, social economy subsystem, and ecology subsystem. Firstly we predicted the carrying capacity of water resources in target years 2020, 2025, and 2030 using GM(1,1) model. Furthermore, we examined the sustainability of social economic development pattern under four scenarios based on analysis of the uncertainty of the prediction results in line with the Most Strict Water Resources Management Policy and the River Chief System. Research findings unveiled that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang is good in future, reaching degree Ⅰ around 2025. Under scenario three, in which sewage declines, river water quality improves, eco-environmental water use and forest cover remain increasing, the social economic development is well sustainable. Thus, we propose that social economy development should be coordinate with ecological environment protection.

Key words: carrying capacity of water resources, prediction and analysis, comprehensive evaluation, GM(1,1) model, uncertainty analysis, sustainable development, Yichang City