为了对新疆哈巴河地区开展最新的旱情研究,以期全面了解该地区干旱特征及演变规律,基于不同时间尺度下的标准化降水指数(SPI)方法,分析了哈巴河地区1962—2014年间的干旱演变特征。结果表明①近53 a来,SPI指数方法在哈巴河地区有较高的适用性,不同时间尺度SPI皆可监测旱情变化,且与记载的流域实际旱情相符。②从SPI1,SPI3,SPI6指数过程线可以看出,哈巴河地区发生不同干旱等级事件的概率为20%左右;SPI3指数较SPI1,SPI6指数评价的旱情程度要重;SPI12呈现显著的上升趋势,长时间尺度说明地区气候在逐步变湿,有助于减轻地区干旱。③不同季节SPI的年际过程差异显著,其中年SPI最小值为1963年的-1.97,53 a间发生轻旱、中旱、重旱等不同等级干旱事件的年份分别为9,4,0 a。④四季SPI发生轻旱级别以上干旱的年份约占26%~28%,平均约11 a。⑤冬季SPI呈增加趋势,其余季节及年SPI变化趋势不明显,且夏季SPI与年SPI过程较为相似。研究结果可为区域旱情监测与预警、风险管理提供科学依据。
Abstract
The drought evolution characteristics of Habahe in Xinjiang Autonomous Region from 1962 to 2014 were analyzed based on multi-timescale standardized precipitation index (SPI). Results show that 1) the SPI index method is highly applicable to Habahe region in the past 53 years, and the SPI values of different time scales can be used for drought monitoring, which is in line with actual drought conditions. 2) According to the process lines of SPI1(time scale of one month), SPI3 (time scale of three months) and SPI6(time scale of six months), the probability of different levels of drought events was around 20%. The drought condition reflected by SPI3 was more severe than those by SPI1 and SPI6. The value of SPI12 presented a significant rising trend, indicating that the regional climate is becoming wet gradually, conducive to alleviating regional drought. 3) The inter-annual process of SPI value in different seasons varied significantly, among which the minimum SPI value was -1.97 in 1963. During the 53 years, slight drought event appeared for 9 years, medium drought event 4 years, and severe drought event 0 year; medium and severe droughts in four seasons took up 11 years in average, accounting for 26%-28%; in winter, the SPI value displayed rising trend, whereas in other seasons the changes were not obvious. The process of SPI value in summer was similar with that of annual SPI value.
关键词
多时间尺度 /
SPI指数 /
新疆哈巴河地区 /
干旱演变分析 /
水资源评估
Key words
Key words: multi-timescale /
SPI /
Habahe region /
drought evolution analysis /
water resources assessment
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 黄会平.1949—2007年我国干旱灾害特征及成因分析.冰川冻土,2010,32(4):659-665.
杨金虎,张 强,王劲松,等. 近60 a来中国西南春季持续性干旱异常特征分析.干旱区地理, 2015, 38(2):215-222.
王 斌,王贵作,黄金柏,等. 农业旱情评估模型及其应用.北京: 中国水利水电出版社,2011.
叶正伟. 基于SPI的江苏沿海开发地区旱涝演变特征分析——以盐城市为例. 地理科学, 2014, 34(4):479-487.
刘可晶,王 文,朱 烨,等.淮河流域过去60年干旱趋势特征及其与极端降水的联系.水利学报, 2012, 43(10): 1179-1187.
李 喆, 谭德宝, 秦其明,等. 垂直干旱指数在湖北漳河灌区遥感旱情监测中的应用. raybet体育在线
院报, 2010, 27(1):67-72.
鞠 彬,叶 文,胡 丹. 新疆额尔齐斯河流域降水量变化特征及趋势分析.水资源与水工程学报, 2015, 26(4):115-119.
鞠 彬,胡 丹.参考作物蒸发蒸腾量计算方法在额尔齐斯河流域的适用性研究.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(5):106-111.
吴燕锋,巴特尔·巴克,李 维,等.基于综合气象干旱指数的1961—2012年阿勒泰地区干旱时空演变特征.应用生态学报,2015, 26(2):512-520.
史玉光. 中国气象灾害大典(新疆卷). 北京:气象出版社, 2006:36-67.
中华人民共和国农业部.新中国农业60年统计资料. 北京:中国农业出版社, 2009:144-281.
MCKEE T B, DOESKEN N J, KLIEST J. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales∥Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. Anaheim, USA: American Meteorological Society, January 17-22, 1993:179-184.
袁 云,李栋梁,安 迪,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国冬季干旱分区及气候特征.中国沙漠,2010,30(4):917-925.
GB/T 20481—2006,气象干旱等级. 北京:中国标准出版社,2006:12-17.
袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析. 植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.