根据大坝实际运行状况，确立恰当的评价指标和评价准则并对大坝运行风险状况做出准确的判断，是水利工程运行管理的重要内容。然而，评价指标和评价准则之间往往存在复杂的模糊、非线性关系。集对分析法在定量处理多因素间不确定性问题上有较大的优越性，可以用来进行大坝运行风险的评价。采用信息论中的熵权理论，通过定量计算各指标所提供的信息量的大小来确定指标权重，建立基于熵权的大坝运行风险评价集对分析模型，将该模型应用于某坝运行风险评价中，计算分析得出该坝安全等级，并预测其风险发展的趋势。实例证明，基于熵权的集对分析方法简单可行、科学合理，为大坝运行和风险评价提供了新的方法。
Abstract
Establishing proper evaluation indexes and criterion and making accurate judgment on dam’s operational risk according to the real operation condition is important for operation management in water conservancy projects. However, complex fuzzy, nonlinear relations exist between the evaluation indexes and criterion. Set pair analysis method has priority in quantitatively dealing with uncertainty problems between multifactors, hence it can be used for the evaluation of dam’s operational risk. An assessment model for dam’s operational risk based on entropy theory and set pair analysis theory was built. The index weights were determined through calculation of information provided by each factor. The model was applied to evaluate the operation risk of a dam, and the safety level of the dam was obtained and the development trend of the risk was predicted. Results showed that the present method based on set pair analysis and entropy theory is simple and feasible, scientific and reasonable, and offers new idea for the assessment of dam’s operation risk.
关键词
大坝 /
运行安全 /
风险评价 /
信息熵 /
集对分析
Key words
dam /
operation safety /
risk assessment /
information entropy /
set pair analysis
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基金
水利部公益性行业科研项目（201401010）；浙江省自然科学基金项目（LQ15E090003）；浙江省水利厅项目（RC1534,RC1548）；浙江水利水电学院高等教育教学改革项目（JG201508）
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